CES 2011:
Something's Missing

Part 2

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Gutsy Move:  In 1978, Jobs and Wosniak exhibited their new Apple "Disk II" 5 1/4 inch floppy disk drive at the Consumer Electronics Show.  The new accessory sold for almost $500 on a pre-order basis and later sold for $595 as a replacement for slower cassette tape storage. The unit was designed around Shugart parts but assembled in Asia at early production rates of 30 units per day.  The ability to store data easily and retrieve it quickly opened the door for advanced software development in home computers. One year earlier, they unveiled their new Apple II at a show called "West Coast Computer Faire" as part of a venture backed business plan to reach $500 million in sales in five years. They reached the goal in less than three. Used but working Disk II units sell for $25 to $100 today; more than double  the price of a modern 3.5 inch floppy drive and in the same price range as modern hard drives.





































































Continued...

Sometimes innovation is about necessities, not sexiness. Yes, it's boring, but look for LED light bulbs in your 2011 Christmas stocking. Yes, finally bulbs as bright as the "normal" light bulbs, coming to full brightness instantly, and even working with a dimmer; and, of course, you won't need to sell as many iPad's next year in order to pay your light bill. Some CFL guys were even making their product worse to avoid paying royalties, all the while losing the race to a competing technology that outpaces their singular advantage by integer multiples.

Another booth was drawing crowds with keychain breathalyzers; admittedly not new, but a good idea for some. We first saw these in Korea when there weren't any opinion leaders around.  A Japanese trade booth relegated to an obscure "less traveled" hall touted innovations in Japan's first "robotic city." Imagine Christmas future when you don't have to tip the robotic newspaper boy. DuPont used to have a booth bot, but theirs was remotely operated by a fast talking puppeteer off to the side. Someday, we'll go off to see the wizard at CES future and the real booth bots will be there greeting us, golf shirts and hubris synthetically recreated. On the other hand, perhaps the booths of CES future won't need the 60 foot curtain anymore. For now, I'll take LED light bulbs and wish AT&T and Google the best of luck launching their five "new" Android smart phones.

RIM, the Blackberry dudes with their Playbook tablet, drew huge crowds to the chagrin of their wireless industry neighbor across the aisle, even though it looked from the outside like another "iPad killer." The whisper was about the OS, and we weren't sure if it wasn't a bit bigger than September's "Black Pad." D-Link's hardware display was a hotspot, too. Chip costs and demand are enabling lots of wireless video, including home streaming. A handful of inexpensive take along digital movie players were also impressive, and maybe that's where the wave of 3D television copycats will finally land a real market opportunity, just like Anoto's digital pen of CES past. Yes, in a toy.  The need to keep kids entertained on the long ride to Las Vegas is proof there's a sustainable market for consumer electronics. If this technology doesn't find a home soon, the 3D TV that happens in Vegas, happens again, and then happens yet again, will stay in Vegas again.

For the bigger kids, Tesla sports cars certainly drew attention. OK, we won't dispute whether an electronic roadster big enough to ride is really a consumer electronic product, but if you grew up driving remote control electric cars it only makes sense to have a big one, too. Since CES has become a car show, too, GM was not about to be upstaged and showed off its concept urban mobility vehicle so we can all be prepared to run out of parking spaces and gasoline. These are your tax dollars at work. For the older techies, the old marriage of furniture and electronics may be coming back. Black plastic and glass is starting to look so "last decade." A very long time ago, CES was filled with XL100 color televisions framed in beautiful hardwood cabinets. About the same time, a couple of guys took all the money they had to buy a tiny booth shoved off to the side of a massive trade show floor. They showed off a personal computer and captured everyone's attention. Having a faux roof over their booth or a fake robot with attitude were the last things on their minds. They just wanted their new thing to work. Genuine innovation is a rare animal and in danger of becoming an endangered species. We've forgotten how to spot genuine invention, perhaps because of too many distractions created by too many corporate wizards. Here's our CES idea: Try walking right past the 60 foot LED curtain and look for the ten foot booth with a huge crowd of people holding their smart phones as high in the air as they can to take a picture.  Maybe... just maybe, they're trying to get a shot of high tech history being made.